RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE AIR POLLUTION FOR INDUSTRIAL & RESIDENTIAL AREA CASE STUDY: EL-MAX AREA, ALEXANDRIA CITY

1. INTRODUCTION:

In many countries, an AP-HRA is formally required as part of the decision-making process for new programs, projects, regulations, or policies that potentially have an effect on air quality. The assessments were previously limited to qualitative descriptions; scientific advances are now allowing more detailed quantitative analyses of the health risks of air pollution. The industrial activities are expected to discharge their wastes to the surrounding atmosphere.  Therefore, monitoring and assessment should be done to manage and control the air pollution. On the other hand, geographical information system (GIS) is an important tool used in environmental management to support integrated pollution prevention and control. Program for air pollution management and control must be established to increase the awareness of health, economic impacts, and help the tourism sector.

In this papers, problem definition, a survey of measurements of various types of air pollution (TSP, PM10, and PM2.5) and calculate of the risk of these pollutants in industrial (stack of cement company) and residential area (ambient) in El Max area as a case study in Alexandria will be carried out. All these data will be carried out in a geographical map by using GIS technique.

Pollution in ambient air is generally a complex mixture. Consequently, the adverse health impacts observed in epidemiological studies and attributed to an individual air pollutant may actually be partly due to other pollutants in the mixture. PM may be characterized in terms of the mass concentration of particles smaller than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) or 10 μm (PM₁₀), the number of particles (ultrafine), or the chemical composition (e.g. black carbon, organic compounds and heavy metals). Epidemiological and toxicological evidence shows that PM mass (PM_2.5, PM₁₀) comprises fractions with varying types and degrees of health effects (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2013). ⁽²⁾

PM₁₀ may be an appropriate indicator when considering the impact of resuspension of road dust, while black carbon is a more sensitive indicator for exhaust emissions from road traffic (Keuken et al., 2012).⁽³⁾

PM_2.5 has been investigated in many epidemiological studies, and has been shown to be a robust indicator of risk associated with exposure to PM from diverse sources and in different environments (Lim et al., 2013). ⁽⁴⁾

The area of study is El-Max zone in Alexandria City. This area contains six different land uses, illustrated in the next Table and Figure.

 2. HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT (HRA)

a health risk assessment is the scientific evaluation of potential adverse health effects resulting from human exposure to a particular hazard. The health hazard of interest is air pollution.

AN AP-HRA MAY BE QUANTITATIVE OR QUALITATIVE; IT GENERALLY ASSESSES

 (i) The amount of air pollution present, i.e. pollutant concentrations,

 (ii) The amount of contact (exposure) of the targeted population,

 (iii) How harmful the concentration is for human health, i.e. the resulting health risks to the exposed population (WHO, 2010) ⁽⁵⁾.  

3. RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment is one tool used in risk management. It is the process that scientists and government officials use to estimate the increased risk of health problems in people who are exposed to different amounts of toxic substances. Also Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative estimate of risk related to a well-defined situation and a recognized threat (hazard).

 Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R): the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur. An acceptable risk is a risk that is understood and tolerated usually because the cost or difficulty of implementing an effective countermeasure for the associated vulnerability exceeds the expectation of loss.

     Risk = (Probability of the accident occurring). (Expected Loss)

Health risk assessment" includes variations, such as risk as the type and severity of response, with or without a probabilistic context.⁽⁶⁾

 4. MEASUREMENTS AND RISK CATEGORIES OF AIR POLLUTANTS

       The measurements of TSP, PM₁₀, PM_2.5in the ambient throughout the period of 12 months from January 2016 to December 2016 are shown in table (1).

 Table (1): Concentration of TSP, PM₁₀. And PM_2.5 µg/m³ at El Max area (Ambient), 2016

SUGGESTION OF RISK CATEGORY BY USING AQL

To assess the risk according to the law 9/2009, I was supposed that the quantity 100 mg/m³ of TSPis the maximum permissible limit for the stack and above this value will be the beginning of the risk. AQL will be better when the TSP value is less than 100 mg/m³,and the risk category will be decrease with decreasing the value of TSP as mentioned in table (2), and respectively, the impact on the health will minimize.

By the same manner, the idea will apply with PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 as shown in tables (3, 4)

AQL=  Risk limit

More than AQL will be risky in all types of air pollutants (TSP, PM10and PM_2.5).

 Table (2): The AQL and suggested Risk categories of the concentration of TSP from ambient in 24 hrs

Table (3): The suggested risk categories of the concentration of PM_2.5 in the ambient in 24 hrs

Table (4): The risk Categories of the concentration of PM₁₀ from ambient in 24 hrs 

Table (5): The risk of the concentration of TSP from ambient in 24 hrs and annually

 From the above tables , found that , the percentages of TSP measured values to the AQL value in low 94/1994 are very high in all the year 2016 from January to December, and then, the risk category is (F) which is risky category. the exposure to this level of risk or TSP values ( in both 24 hrs. and annually AQL) will lead to upper and lower respiratory system diseases and also cardiovascular diseases and may cause lung cancer .